Afghanistan Duration, Part II

It looks as though today, Defense Minister Arturo Parisi has called for more troop and equipment reinforcement. The request is around 150 troops and a number of tanks and helicopters.

Although more reinforcement is requested says little about a pull-out. As the troops were sent for "peace-keeping" operations, it appears as though they are amid a war. The Italians voted to keep troops for another 6 months last March.

However, more interestingly (from the Middle East Online):

On May 8, the Senate in Kabul approved a bill that called for negotiations with the Taliban, a ceasefire, and a date for the withdrawal of foreign troops. The proposed legislation demands that foreign forces should not engage the Taliban unless they are themselves attacked or have first consulted with the Afghan army, police and government.

The bill reflects a growing popular rebellion against heavy-handed American army tactics and aerial bombardments, which have brought death and destruction to many parts of Afghanistan. The bill has to be approved by the lower house of Parliament and by President Karzai before becoming law.

On May 10, Iraq had followed suit with similar legislation of which a majority has required a timeline for the withdrawal of troops. The homecoming of Italian troops seems more and more imminent.

How Much Longer In Afghanistan?

From the IHT:

The Afghan government has taken over the management of hospitals run by an Italian aid group that pulled its international workers to protest the detention of a staff member by authorities, an official said Thursday.

It appears that even after the Italian NGO "Emergency" left their posts in protest to the death sentencing of the Afghan translator and aid for the freeing of the Italian journalist Mastrogiacomo, their posts were quickly filled by the Afghan government. This does bode as a good sign for Afghanistan as they are not negotiating with influential forces and enforcing their laws and have the resources to back it up. There are other recent signs of success for Afghanistan that seem promising.

With recent Afghan unity and successes against the Taliban, with a small percentage of Italian troops in Afghanistan (1300 out of 32000 NATO troops), and when Italian aid seems unnecessary, there may be attempts for a withdrawal of troops. Especially with Prime Minister Prodi under heat from his party and others, the time may be nearing.

The French have been pressured to withdraw from the Taliban as well recently. French President Sarkozy has also talked of withdrawal which resulted in the release of a French hostage. However, concessions to hostage threats are an unlikely mechanism for withdrawal as nations fall under public scrutiny for showing "weakness" and negotiating with the enemy. Italy has already gone through their own debacle in their concession to hostage takers. We will see if the French actually follow through soon.

Nevertheless, if Italy and France both pull out, that would symbolically show a pull out of spirit for the Afghan movement. The French currently have 1100 troops stationed in Afghanistan and if both nations pull out it would be a 8% withdrawal of troops. Although a small percentage in theory, there may be more witnessing european nations that will have corroding support as a result. The US is already spread thinly with war in Iraq. Hence, NATO members, and especially the US, will probably try its best to deter Italy and France from leaving. Although it is highly politically popular now to be anti-US policy, they will probably not pull out until there is a longer streak of stability in Afghanistan.